If you're preparing merchandise for your first tour, one of the biggest questions you'll have to answer is:

How many shirts should I actually order?

Order too much and you can tie up thousands of dollars in inventory that may sit around after the tour. Order too little and you risk selling out of your best designs and sizes halfway through the run.

After working with artists and managers on tour merchandise, we've found that the best approach isn't to try to perfectly predict every sale before the tour starts.

Instead, start with a conservative initial order, track demand in real time, and have a plan for quickly replenishing inventory.

Here's how we recommend approaching your first tour.

Why Your First Tour Is Different

Your first tour doesn't give you the advantage of historical tour data.

An established artist might know that they typically generate $10 in merchandise sales per person, that XL is their fastest-selling size, or that a particular shirt sells significantly better than everything else.

For a first tour, you probably don't have that information yet.

That means your goal shouldn't be to order enough merchandise to cover your absolute best-case scenario.

Your goal should be to:

• Have enough inventory to start selling immediately
• Avoid over-investing in untested merchandise
• Learn what your audience actually wants
• Replenish your best sellers quickly

Your first tour is essentially going to create the data you'll use to plan your second tour.

How Much Should My Initial Order Be?

One of the biggest mistakes we see with first-time tours is ordering 100% of the projected merchandise upfront.

If you project that you'll sell 1,000 shirts during a tour, that doesn't necessarily mean you should manufacture all 1,000 before the tour begins.

We recommend considering an initial order of roughly 50% of your projected demand.

For example:

Projected tour demand: 1,000 shirts
Initial order: approximately 500 shirts

This gives you enough inventory to get the tour started while limiting the amount of cash tied up in inventory before you've seen actual demand.

Once the tour begins, you can use real sales data to determine what needs to be replenished.

If one design is flying off the table while another barely moves, your next production run can reflect that information.

The key is having a production partner that can react quickly.

A conservative initial order only works if you can get additional inventory produced and delivered quickly.

That's where having an experienced merchandise production partner can make a major difference.

At Ink Made, we've handled real-time tour restocks where merchandise needs to be printed and shipped immediately to keep up with demand.

Our Stock Program allows us to keep commonly used blank garments stocked at our warehouse, rather than waiting for blanks to be ordered after a client requests a reorder.

That can dramatically shorten the time between:

"We're selling out."

and

"The replacement inventory is on its way."

Depending on the order and production schedule, we've been able to turn around rush restocks as quickly as the same day.

The goal is simple:

You shouldn't have to choose between over-ordering thousands of shirts and risking a sellout.

With the right production setup, you can start conservatively and replenish based on what is actually selling.

Estimate Tour Merch Sales Using "Per Head"

Instead of simply estimating what percentage of the audience will purchase merchandise, we recommend thinking in terms of merchandise revenue per head.

"Per head" refers to the amount of merchandise revenue generated for each person attending the show.

For example:

If 500 people attend a show and merchandise generates $5,000 in sales:

$5,000 ÷ 500 attendees = $10 per head

Per-head performance can vary significantly depending on the artist, genre, audience, ticket price, merchandise assortment, venue, and whether the artist is headlining or supporting.

As a general planning framework, you might see something like:

These aren't guarantees or industry-wide rules. They're simply useful planning ranges.

Headliner vs Supporting Act

Your position on the bill matters.

If you're the headliner, you generally have more opportunity to sell merchandise because fans are primarily there to see you and have more time and incentive to visit your merch table.

For a headlining artist with a strong merch offering, using around $10 per head as an initial planning estimate can be a reasonable starting point.

If you're a supporting act, we'd recommend being more conservative—something closer to $5 per head for initial projections.

Again, actual performance can vary substantially, so these numbers should be treated as starting assumptions rather than guarantees.

Example: Calculating Merchandise Demand

Let's say you're a headlining artist playing:

10 shows

Average expected attendance:

500 people

Estimated merch performance:

$10 per head

Your projected merchandise revenue would be:

500 × $10 = $5,000 per show

Across 10 shows:

$5,000 × 10 = $50,000 projected merchandise revenue

Now, instead of immediately manufacturing every shirt you think you'll need, you can build your initial inventory around roughly half of your projected unit demand and use actual tour performance to guide your replenishment.

This is where having a fast production partner becomes extremely valuable.

How Many Designs Should I Launch With?

For a first tour, you generally don't need a massive merchandise catalog.

Every additional design creates another SKU to manage.

For example, if you have:

10 designs × 6 sizes = 60 SKUs

your inventory can become spread very thin.

A more manageable first-tour assortment might include:

• 2–4 T-shirt designs
• 1 hoodie
• 1 long sleeve
• 1–2 accessories

Your exact assortment depends on the artist and audience, but the principle is simple:

Don't create more SKUs than your expected sales can support.

It's usually better to have a few strong designs with healthy inventory than 15 designs with only a handful of each size.

What Size Breakdown Should I Order?

Once you've determined your total shirt quantity, you still need to decide how those shirts should be distributed across sizes.

Avoid automatically ordering equal quantities of every size.

Instead, look at:

• Previous online sales
• Previous live-event sales
• Audience demographics
• Garment fit
• Artist's existing customer base
• Historical sales from similar merchandise

For example, a hypothetical 500-shirt order might look like:

This is only an example—not a universal size breakdown.

If you've already sold 2,000 shirts online and know that XL consistently outsells Small, your tour inventory should reflect your actual customer data rather than a generic size chart.

What Should I NOT Order?

Your first tour is not the time to put your entire merch budget into untested inventory.

Don't manufacture your entire projected demand upfront.

If you expect to sell 2,000 shirts, you don't necessarily need 2,000 shirts sitting in your warehouse before the first show.

Don't order huge quantities of untested designs.

A design that performs well on Instagram isn't automatically going to be your best seller at the merch table.

Don't create too many SKUs.

More designs and more garment types mean more inventory to manage.

Don't ignore your existing sales data.

If you already sell online, your Shopify or other e-commerce data can tell you a lot about your audience's preferred sizes, designs, and price points.

Don't forget about your replenishment plan.

Before the tour starts, know:

Who is producing your restocks?

How quickly can they produce them?

Where can they ship them?

Can they ship directly to your next venue?

This is just as important as your initial order.

Example: A 10-Show First Tour

Let's put everything together.

Imagine an artist is headlining:

10 shows

Average attendance:

500 people

Planning estimate:

$10 per head

Estimated merchandise revenue:

500 × $10 = $5,000 per show

Total projected merchandise revenue:

$5,000 × 10 = $50,000

Now the artist works backward from that projection to determine their expected unit sales based on their planned merchandise prices and assortment.

Instead of producing the entire projected inventory upfront, they could start with approximately 50% of their projected demand.

Then, after the first few shows, they can evaluate:

• Which designs are selling
• Which sizes are selling
• How many units are selling per night
• Which cities are strongest
• Whether merchandise is outperforming or underperforming expectations

That information can determine the next production run.

For example:

Shows 1–2:
Design A sells extremely quickly.

Show 3:
XL and 2XL are nearly sold out.

Show 4:
Design B is significantly slower.

Instead of blindly producing the original plan again, the artist can reorder more of Design A in the sizes that are actually selling.

That's the advantage of using a data-driven replenishment strategy.

What If I'm Unsure?

If this is your first tour and you don't know what your merch sales will look like, that's completely normal.

You don't need to have perfect information before the tour starts.

Instead, reduce your risk by making the first order more conservative and building a replenishment strategy around it.

Use your existing sales data

If you've sold merchandise online, look at:

• Units sold
• Best-selling designs
• Size distribution
• Average order value
• Revenue per customer

Talk to your merchandise production partner

An experienced production partner can help you evaluate:

• Quantities
• Size breakdowns
• Garments
• Production timelines
• Restock options
• Shipping requirements

Have a restock plan before you leave

Don't wait until you're standing at a venue with 10 shirts left to figure out how you'll get more.

Your production partner should know:

• Your tour schedule
• Your upcoming venues
• Your expected inventory needs
• Your shipping requirements
• How quickly you may need a reorder

At Ink Made, our Stock Program is designed specifically to help with situations where speed matters. By keeping selected blank garments in stock at our warehouse, we're able to start production much faster when an artist needs an unexpected restock.

In some situations, we've been able to produce rush restocks the same day they're ordered and get them moving directly toward the next venue.

Your First Tour Is Your Data Collection Tour

The most valuable thing you can bring home from your first tour isn't just revenue.

It's data.

After every show, track:

• Attendance
• Starting inventory
• Units sold
• Sales by design
• Sales by size
• Remaining inventory
• Merchandise revenue
• Revenue per head

For example:

After several shows, you can start replacing assumptions with real numbers.

Instead of saying:

"We think we'll do $10 per head."

You might discover:

"We're averaging $11.25 per head, and our XL shirts are selling 30% faster than we expected."

That information is incredibly valuable when you're planning the next production run—or your next tour.

The Bottom Line

For a first tour, don't try to perfectly predict your entire merchandise demand before the first show.

Start with a conservative initial inventory—roughly 50% of your projected demand can be a useful starting point—then use real-time sales data to determine what you need to produce next.

For estimating demand, consider using per-head merchandise revenue rather than simply assuming a percentage of attendees will buy something.

As a starting framework:

• Supporting act: ~$5 per head
• Headliner: ~$10 per head
• Strong merch performance: ~$15+ per head

These are planning estimates, not guarantees.

Most importantly, make sure you have a production partner capable of quick replenishment.

The best inventory strategy isn't necessarily having a warehouse full of shirts before your tour starts.

It's having enough inventory to start selling confidently and a reliable way to get more merchandise to the next venue when demand exceeds expectations.

That's how you minimize inventory risk without leaving money on the table.